You can find reports from our Investment and Research team, timely and informative financial planning topics from our Wealth Management team, and deeper dives on various important topics in our white papers from any team member. Read online, share with friends, or download for your convenience.

The Pandemic’s Impact on Migration Patterns

There have been a lot of anecdotal stories floating around during the pandemic about a mass migration to Florida. In the Investment Research team's newest brief we used change-of-address (COA) request data to quantify the pandemic's impact on migration patterns in the U.S. and specifically here on the Suncoast. Our analysis shows that migration tre...

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Seeking 2021 Applicants for Allegiant's Annual Scholarship Program

Allegiant Private Advisors gives back to the community in many ways, a commitment established and honored since the firm was founded more than two decades ago. Recognizing that the most important thing to our clients is the health and well-being of their family and striving to ignite a discussion about financial responsibility with younger generati...

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First Quarter 2021 Chartbook

Luke Nicholas, CFA, CFP®, an Allegiant Principal and Director of Portfolio Management, and our Senior Research Analyst Will Geisdorf, CMT, present the Investment Research team's First Quarter 2021 Chartbook. This video explores key trends the Allegiant team is monitoring to keep our finger on the pulse of the global economy and ...

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American Rescue Plan Act and Tax Deadline Change

On March 29, 2021, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) made an additional update regarding the 2020 tax year. This announcement follows the original extension of the federal income tax filing due date for individual taxpayers to May 17, 2021, and now specifies that the extension applies to IRA contributions and filing certain claims for refund. Clic...

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Taxes Could Be Going Up: 2021 Edition

by Michelle Cross, CFP®, CPA, CDFA®, AIF®Wealth Advisor About this time last year I wrote about our concern that taxes could go up given all of the COVID-related stimulus being packed on to our already skyrocketing federal debt. At the time, $2 trillion had been approved which was triple what was spent to recover from the financial crisis in 2...

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Important Tax Implications to Your Financial Plan

by Michelle Cross, CFP®, CPA, CDFA®, AIF®Wealth AdvisorAt Allegiant Private Advisors, we focus on comprehensive, fully customized wealth management. One key aspect that is relevant to all of our clients is the careful evaluation of tax implications during the financial planning process. Our intellectually curious team is full of life-long lear...

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Confirmation of What We Already Know, Plus a Look Forward

This month we finally received confirmation of what we already know - U.S. economic activity has declined substantially. As I mentioned a couple of months ago, we were in a very unique position where we knew economic activity was going to decline sharply way before we could see the data to confirm it. While the data is not encouraging, it is backward-looking. Our focus is on the future. 

Economic Dashboard

Allegiant’s Economic Dashboard for May shows four red indicators and two green indicators. After flashing three red indicators two months ago, the Dashboard now solidly suggests we are in a recession. It will take some time for the official announcement from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) but make no mistake - the quick decline of economic activity is severe. 

Phases of the Economic Impact

The official recession may not last long, but the total economic impact from the COVID-19 pandemic will be much longer. In order to better analyze the impact, we believe it is best to break it into three distinct phases. Phase 1 is the “Severe Decline” phase as many parts of the economy are shut down. This mitigate and contain phase is where we have been for the past 6 weeks. Now we are shifting to Phase 2, monitoring and adapting. During this “Initial Bounce Back” phase businesses begin cautiously reopening. Lastly, we will enter Phase 3, aptly named the “Road to Recovery” phase. Here growth will moderate from the initial bounce-back of Phase 2. During Phase 3 consumers and businesses will adjust to the longer-term reality of the new normal of living through a pandemic. 

While there are uncertainties around timing and intensity, we largely know what Phase 1 and 2 will look like. There is much more uncertainty surrounding Phase 3. After the initial bounce back will the economy continue growing? Is it stable and gradual growth or is it lumpy? How does consumer behavior change? How do businesses adjust? Will we have additional outbreaks? What happens to all the newly issued debt? There are many questions to answer over the coming quarters. During this time, it will be more important than ever to examine the new data to identify transition points. As I explained in Quadrants of Possibilities, economic data will remain bad for a while. More important than waiting for good data releases, we are looking for the data to transition from bad and weakening to bad and improving.

Markets are Forward-Looking

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A Smooth Ride: How Long Will It Last?

Last March the U.S. stock market recorded some of the most volatile days in its history. There were some scary days for investors as the U.S. economy closed. As historic as the volatility was, it was not completely unexpected. Investing involves risk - sometimes extreme short-term risk. At inflection points markets can be erratic but over time the ...

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White Paper: The Fallacy of Average

By: Paul Cantor, CFA®, AIF®, CFP™
Chief Operating Officer, Principal

I was recently asked by friends why my economic and market outlook was tinged with some concern. It was a valid question from some very intelligent non-financial professionals. The financial media is filled with positive bias as they cheer Apple becoming the first company in history to reach a $1 trillion-dollar market capitalization. Additionally, we just posted the strongest GDP growth that we have seen in years of 4.1% for the quarter. The stock markets hover at near record highs. Consumer confidence is bordering on ebullient. S&P 500 earnings are estimated to grow by nearly 23% for the quarter. Corporate managements are repatriating funds from overseas and buying back stock at unprecedented rates supporting both stock prices and earnings growth. According to S&P Global Rankings, “Total cash held by U.S. nonfinancial companies, including money parked domestically and overseas, rose 9% to a record $2.07 trillion.”1 The unemployment rate ticked down to a new low of 3.9%, the lowest we’ve seen in over 17 years.

Consumer and corporate balance sheets are ostensibly in terrific condition. We are enjoying the second longest economic expansion since 1945 according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. So, why the concern? This paper will add some perspective, looking deeper into the averages to show why they could be fallacious.

Click here to read our full white paper: The Fallacy of Average.

New White Paper: The Devolution of Globalization

In the 1975 political thriller film “Three Days of the Condor,” Robert Redford plays a CIA analyst working in a clandestine office where they endlessly read disparate books, newspapers, and magazines from around the world to discern trends, hidden meanings, and other useful information that might be buried in the noise.
Allegiant's newest white paper by our Chief Operating Officer and Principal Paul Cantor, CFA, AIF®, CFP®, is similarly an attempt to link a myriad of mega-trends and world events into a tapestry of potential outcomes, and the policies required to get there.

Click here to read The Devolution of Globalization.

New White Paper: The Debt Albatross

A Review of Debt-Related Financial Crises

By Paul Cantor, CFA, AIF®, CFP®
Chief Operating Officer, Principal

The purpose of this new white paper is to present answers to the questions:

  • Does debt matter?
  • Will high debt levels cause a huge financial crisis?
  • Can we identify how the crisis may develop?
  • What policy responses should we expect to see?
  • Will this information help us better navigate portfolios through the economic fallout?

These questions are critically important to numerous stakeholders for a variety of reasons. Academics are concerned that current policies are inconsistent with sustained economic growth. Regulators and international financial institutions are concerned that current and future increasing debt levels are harbingers of future crises. Portfolio managers are concerned about preserving client assets in times of crisis while earning acceptable returns during periods of economic growth. Individuals care because their lifetime savings might be at risk. Click here to read "The Debt Albatross."

Looking for Normalcy? Maybe We’re Looking for the Wrong Thing

With the Presidential election all but concluded one of the big uncertainties of 2020 will soon be behind us. (Click here to read our Post-Election Brief from the Investment Research team.)For good or bad, markets like certainty. Juxtapose that with the record number of COVID-19 cases spreading throughout the country—and world—as well as the U.S. S...

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Finding Truth Amid the Uncertainty

With all the uncertainty in the world today it is more difficult than ever to divine what the future holds. Economic, political, and health uncertainty (to name a few) have dominated our lives in 2020. As capricious as today's environment may seem, uncertainty is one of the very few constants in life. As such, it is important to understand how to n...

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Let the Recovery Begin

No two recessions are the same - that has never been more true than today. The U.S. has not experienced an economic decline like the one that started in March since the Great Depression. Even more, the sheer speed of the decline is unparalleled. This might seem like a negative, but it is actually a positive. The quicker the decline, the quicker the...

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Mid-Year Recap

Monthly Insights Presented by Benjamin W. Jones, CFP®, AIF®CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™President, Chief Investment Officer, Principal At the risk of stating the obvious, 2020 has been full of surprises. As the saying goes, life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans. Never has this been more true than today. The world...

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