Allegiant Private Advisors Senior Research Analyst Will Geisdorf, CMT, examines historical data related to presidential elections and markets in the newest publication from our in-house Investment Research division. Key takeaways include:
A bear market, recession, and low approval rating all weigh on President Trump's odds of reelection.
Markets tend to weaken heading into the election when the incumbent party loses. Weakness often reverses the following year.
Republicans will have a tough time holding on to the Senate if President Trump loses.
Regardless of outcome, expect heightened volatility between now and election day.
The presidential cycle remains favorable for the S&P 500 through next summer.