PROPRIETARY RESEARCH

We conduct all our own research, which we share in our monthly economic book, white papers, macroeconomic and security-specific reports.

As one of the most intensive users of the Bloomberg Database in the region, we clearly make self-sourced research the highest priority in order to enhance our independent approach to total wealth management.

2020 Post-Election Brief

Post-Election Brief

Election Preview

Election Preview: August 2020

Digital Revolution Brief

Digital Revolution Brief

Local Impacts of COVID-19 Brief

Local Impacts of COVID-19 Brief

Minimizing Portfolio Losses

July 2017

The Debt Albatross

March 2020

By Paul Cantor, CFA, AIF®, CFP®
Chief Operating Officer, Principal

The purpose of this paper is to present answers to the questions:
• Does debt matter?
• Will high debt levels cause a huge financial crisis?
• Can we identify how the crisis may develop?
• What policy responses should we expect to see?
• Will this information help us better navigate portfolios through the economic fallout?

The Devolution Of Globalization

March 2019

By: Paul Cantor, CFA®, AIF®, CFP™
Chief Operating Officer, Principal

In the 1975 political thriller film “Three Days of the Condor,” Robert Redford plays a CIA analyst working in a clandestine office where they endlessly read disparate books, newspapers, and magazines from around the world to discern trends, hidden meanings, and other useful information that might be buried in the noise. This paper is similarly an attempt to link a myriad of mega-trends and world events into a tapestry of potential outcomes, and the policies required to get there.

The Fallacy Of Average

April 2018

By: Paul Cantor, CFA®, AIF®, CFP™
Chief Operating Officer, Principal

I was recently asked by friends why my economic and market outlook was tinged with some concern. It was a valid question from some very intelligent non-financial professionals. The financial media is filled with positive bias as they cheer Apple becoming the first company in history to reach a $1 trillion-dollar market capitalization. Additionally, we just posted the strongest GDP growth that we have seen in years of 4.1% for the quarter. The stock markets hover at near record highs. Consumer confidence is bordering on ebullient. S&P 500 earnings are estimated to grow by nearly 23% for the quarter. Corporate managements ....

The End Of TINA

June 2018

While the 1960s will always be remembered for free love and peace signs, the ‘80s for bad hair and the ‘90s for the rise of the personal computer – the 2010s may very well be remembered for something far different – record low interest rates. Low interest rates have impacted consumers and financial markets in a myriad of ways over the past decade. I will review some of those impacts, re-introduce the now famous acronym TINA and discuss whether this low interest rate era may finally be coming to an end.

The Quest For Financial Freedom

October 2017

One in three Americans has not saved a single penny for retirement. To achieve any measure of financial independence, saving early and investing is the key. By saving early, investors capitalize on the powerful concept of compounding returns, which allows their contributions to grow into larger amounts.

Fourth Industrial Revolution

July 2016

The Investment Derby: Value Vs Growth

November 2015

A Return To Normality

February 2015

Bang For Your Buck?

May 2015

Implications Of An Aging Society

February 2015

Earnings Brief May 2018

Fed Brief October 2016

China Brief July 2015

Energy Brief December 2014

Interest Rate Brief October 2014

Monthly Insights - November 2020

Looking for Normalcy?
Maybe We’re Looking for the Wrong Thing

Monthly Insights - October 2020

Finding Truth Amid the Uncertainty

Monthly Insights - August 2020

What Happens When the Rubber Meets the Road?

Monthly Insights - July 2020

At the risk of stating the obvious, 2020 has been full of surprises. As the saying goes, life is what happens to you while you’re busy making other plans. Never has this been more true than today. The world turned upside down in the first half of the year. Whatever plans we had went out the window as everyone shifted to the new reality. As dramatic as the current short-term impact is, 2020 will (hopefully) one day amount to a small blip in the history books. Blip as it may be, there will be lasting impacts on the world as our plans for the future may have permanently shifted.

As we enter the second half of the year, we now know more about the pandemic. But that doesn’t necessarily make the challenges any easier. The goal remains managing the virus without creating devastating economic impacts. Unfortunately, we still have much to learn here.

Monthly Insights - June 2020

No two recessions are the same - that has never been more true than today. The U.S. has not experienced an economic decline like the one that started in March since the Great Depression. Even more, the sheer speed of the decline is unparalleled. This might seem like a negative, but it is actually a positive. The quicker the decline, the quicker the recovery can begin.

Depths of Economic Activity

Recently released data suggests economic activity bottomed in April. This makes sense as April coincided with the most stringent stay-at-home orders. As states started to reopen in May, activity picked up. From jobless claims to manufacturing PMI to non-manufacturing NMI, the rebound is occurring.

Monthly Insights - May 2020

Confirmation of What We Already Know, Plus a Look Forward

This month we finally received confirmation of what we already know - U.S. economic activity has declined substantially. As I mentioned a couple of months ago, we were in a very unique position where we knew economic activity was going to decline sharply way before we could see the data to confirm it. While the data is not encouraging, it is backward-looking. Our focus is on the future. 

Economic Dashboard

Allegiant’s Economic Dashboard for May shows four red indicators and two green indicators. After flashing three red indicators two months ago, the Dashboard now solidly suggests we are in a recession. It will take some time for the official announcement from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) but make no mistake - the quick decline of economic activity is severe. 

Monthly Insights - April 2020

As the novel coronavirus pandemic takes hold on the U.S., new economic data is beginning to show the sheer magnitude of the near-term impact. As utterly astonishing as some of the initial data is, we are prepared for the numbers to look even worse. Much of the data only shows a small early glimpse of the social distancing and stay-at-home orders happening across the country. Data over the next month will paint more of the picture. While the numbers may be striking, they shouldn’t be alarming. 

Monthly Insights - March 2020

Monthly Insights - February 2020

Monthly Insights - January 2020

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